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ForecastChina

China is a marketplace of huge potential, but equally huge complexity. Consumption habits and the nature of the population vary wildly across the country, making it difficult for you to identify and locate your customers; let alone forecast the size and nature of the marketplace of tomorrow.

To make sound marketing decisions, you need accurate information on provinces, and ideally prefectures. The ForecastChina series from Asian Demographics blends demographics and social economics to offer you reliable, predictive information that enables you to master the Chinese marketplace. Our analysis and predictions of future market trends continue right up to 2024.


Provinces and prefectures

China's 31 provinces have an average population of 41 million. Some provinces have a larger population, GDP and GDP per capita than a number of Asian countries. For example, the population of Guangdong is over three and half times bigger than that of Taiwan and its total GDP exceeds that of Hong Kong. The GDP per capita of Shanghai exceeds that of Malaysia, The Philippines and Indonesia.

For more focused information, we have broken provinces down into prefectures (administrative districts). The number of prefectures varies for each province, depending on population and geographical area. Some prefectures are highly urbanised and affluent (often the case where a prefecture includes a provincial capital); other prefectures are principally agricultural. Population and affluence vary widely. For example, the GDP per capita of the most affluent prefecture in Jiangsu is over seven and half times times the GDP per capita of the least affluent.

With such a wide range of strikingly different regions within a single province, looking at market information by prefecture gives a far more accurate picture of the location and strength of market demand for a particular product than looking at a province as a whole.

Selected Provinces of China relative to selected Asian Countries

  Total GDP
US$ Bn
Population
000s
GDP per
cap US$
India 522 1048923 498
Australia 385 20081 20157
Taiwan 296 22658 13066
Indonesia 179 207532 863
Guangdong 166 81001 2053
Hong Kong 165 6852 24046
Jiangsu 154 74183 2076
Shandong 150 91853 1629
Thailand 143 62037 2308
Zhejiang 117 47121 2482
Malaysia 100 25048 3996
Singapore 91 3390 26944
Philippines 81 80834 1007
Liaoning 74 41923 1770
Shanghai 74 17359 4252
Beijing 43 14664 2957
Vietnam 38 79202 480

Prefectures in Jiangsu Province

  Total GDP US$ Bn

Population
000's

GDP per cap US$
Suzhou 30.6 6120 5003
Wuxi 22.9 4581 4996
Nanjing 18.8 5956 3149
Nantong 12.7 8018 1580
Xuzhou 11.3 9426 1197
Changzhou 11 3582 3070
Yancheng 9.6 8228 1172
Zhenjiang 8 2760 2914
Yangzhou 7.9 4692 1691
Taizhou 7.3 5202 1395
Huaian 5.5 5393 1014
Lianyungang 4.9 4858 1011
Suqian 3.5 5366 659

 

Projections for each province

  • Age by gender
  • Urbanisation
  • Births by age of mother
  • Deaths by age and gender
  • Overall population age trends
  • Levels of education attainment
  • Number of households by size, and urban and rural
  • Lifecycle profile of the adult population
  • Labour force size and participation rate
  • Employment by industry sector
  • GDP based on labour force size and productivity
  • Income distribution of all households
  • Average expenditure pattern of all households
  • Income distribution for each of urban and rural households
  • Average expenditure for each of urban and rural households


Projections for each prefecture

  • Total population
  • Urbanisation rate
  • Urban and rural populations
  • Total number of households
  • Number of urban and rural households
  • Urban and rural household sizes
  • Total GDP
  • GDP per capita
  • Average urban household income
  • Average urban household consumption expenditure
  • Distribution of urban households by income
  • Estimated age profile in categories, e.g. 0 to 14 years, 15 to 24 years etc.
  • Total city populations
  • GDP per capita of total city populations
  • Total city households
  • Average rural household income


Convenient and accessible
Reports cover the 31 provinces and can be ordered with or without the more detailed prefecture data. The reports are supported by databases containing actual and predictive demographic and socio economic data on each province and prefecture up to 2024.


Format
The reports are provided in electronic format. Each report and database in the ForecastChina series is presented in a consistent Excel format for easy comparison.


Methodology

Using the broad summary data available from the provinces we developed a mathematical solution that estimates the overall distribution of the population by five-year age breaks by gender. We supplemented these estimates with published data on births and deaths and number of persons per household to develop a complete demographic profile for each province from 1995 to 2003. Using our own population forecasting model we then forecast to 2024.

Finally, our Household Income and Expenditure model was integrated with the population model to provide historic and projected data on incomes and expenditure for each of the urban and rural households in each province. These forecasts are to 2024.


Sources
Our data is obtained directly from government publications from the individual provinces. As far as possible data is cross-checked against other trusted sources. We retain a copy of all source publications in our library for future reference.


Reliability
Our datasets are both complete and internally consistent. We are confident that our forecasts provide the first complete demographic and socio-economic picture of the provinces of China through to 2024.

Asian Demographics Ltd is an independent company with no links to any government or lobby group. Our reports and forecasts are free of external influence and are unique to us.


Delivery, Pricing and Licence
Delivery
All orders are sent by email
The reports and Database are sent in Excel format and are typically about 1 mb per province.

Pricing
The cost is as follows

  • All Provinces Package .............................US$16,500.00
    - Includes all 31 Provinces and
    - ForecastAsia - China National Report
  • Per Province .........................................US$750
  • Prefectures - Total package ....................US$30,000
    - Comprises the Province package above plus data sheets on all 356 prefectures for the 27 non-municipalities provinces.
  • Prefectures - per Province ......................US$1,500
    - This provides the details on the province and all prefectures in that province. Please note that the numbed of prefectures varies by province.

Licence Conditions
The Reports and Data Bases are sold on the condition that they are used only by the purchasing company ('The Company') for its planning purposes. 'The Company' refers to the entity placing the order and its majority owned subsidiaries. The purchaser may copy the model for the purposes of use within The Company' and in different offices of 'The Company'. The Company may share the Reports and Databases with third parties contracted to 'The Company', such as consultants, on the understanding that they use it purely for 'The Company's' purposes and that they do not copy or disclose information to any other party. The purchasing company may not disclose the contents of the Reports or Databases, or any information derived from it to persons outside 'The Company' without prior written permission by Asian Demographics Ltd. This permission will not be unreasonably withheld provided it does not constitute more than 10% of the report, involves some added analysis by 'The Company" and accreditation is duly given to Asian Demographics Ltd.

In the case of the purchasing company being a consulting firm using the model to assist a client, the model is deemed to be purchased for that client. In the event that the same information is required for a separate client a new licence must be purchased.

  AUSTRALIA
CHINA
HONG KONG
INDIA
INDONESIA
JAPAN
MALAYSIA
NEW ZEALAND
PHILIPPINES
SINGAPORE
SOUTH KOREA
TAIWAN
THAILAND
VIETNAM
 
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